Here are the top five things you need to know in financial markets on Friday, April 5:

 

 

1. Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast to Bounce Back

The U.S. Department of Labor will release its measures of the employment situationfor March at 8:30 AM ET (12:30 GMT), following up on a very disappointing payrolls number for February.

Economists forecast that nonfarm payrolls will bounce back in March, rising by 175,000.

A meager 20,000 jobs were created in the second month of the year, its lowest level since September 2017, while ADP’s report released Wednesday showed that the U.S. economy added the fewest private sector jobs in 18 months during March.

However, Thursday’s weekly data on jobless claims unexpectedly fell to their lowest level in nearly 50 years, underlining the case that a long expansion in the economy near full employment has naturally reduced labor market slack.

Despite the interest in job creation sparked by recent data, market focus will likely be on average hourly earnings which are expected to have increased 3.4% on an annualized basis, unchanged from the prior month and in line with expectations.

The Federal Reserve will be watching that number as March could be the sixth consecutive month that it holds above the 3% level that economists generally consider to fuel inflation.

Read more: NFP Preview: Potential For Upside Beat – Will Traders Care? - Matthew Weller

 

2. U.S.-China trade negotiations on the right track

As negotiations over trade continue between the U.S. and China drag on, positive developments have shown the tendency to support risk sentiment given the concerns of the damaging economic impact that would stem from a fullblown trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

With high level officials involved in discussions in Washington, China’s state run news agency Xinhua reported that a new consensus has been reached between the two sides.

China’s top trade negotiator Vice Premier Liu He reportedly passed along a message from Chinese Preside Xi Jinping to U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday that both sides have made new and substantial progress on key issues and he hoped they would conclude a trade text as soon as possible.

Trump downplayed the possibility of an immediate agreement, saying that “we’ll know over the next four weeks” if a deal has been reached.

 

3. Stocks upbeat on U.S.-Sino trade; cautious ahead of jobs report

The positive news flow surrounding trade negotiations supported risk sentiment on Friday, although caution head of nonfarm payrolls limited upside. At 5:36 AM ET (9:36 GMT), the blue-chip Dow futures gained 27 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures rose 4 points, or 0.1%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures traded up 15 points, or 0.2%.

Elsewhere, European stock markets showed cautious trade on Friday but were still on track to end the week at their highest levels in eight months. Apart from the positive read on trade developments, markets showed confidence that the U.K. and European Union would avoid a cliff edge Brexit.

Earlier, Asian stocks closed higher on the positive vibe from trade negotiations, though caution ahead of U.S. payrolls and a holiday in China kept volume in check. 

 

4. Oil on track for best weekly stretch since 2017

Despite a selloff sparked on Wednesday by a 7.2 million surge in weekly U.S. oil inventories, crude remained on track to end the week higher. That would be its fifth straight week of gains, its best run since November 2017.

Oil prices struggled to recover on Friday, with support coming from reported progress in trade negotiations. The message that the world’s two largest oil importers were working to reach a deal boosted confidence of avoiding an all-out trade war that could dampen demand.

U.S. crude oil futures slipped 2 cents, or 0.03%, to $62.08 by 5:37 AM ET (9:37 GMT), while Brent oil traded down 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.19.

Still on the docket, Baker Hughes will release its weekly rig count data, an early indicator of future output in the U.S., at 1:00 PM ET (17:00 GMT).

Last week’s reading showed that U.S. energy firms reduced the number of oil rigs operating for a sixth week in a row, cutting eight rigs to the lowest count in nearly a year.

 

5. Brexit extension in the works, dampening fears of disorderly rupture

Prime Minister Theresa May formally requested to delay the U.K.’s exit from the European Union to June 30, ostensibly to allow time for U.K. lawmakers to approve a transitional deal to smooth the Brexit process.

May said that the U.K. would prepare to take part in European parliamentary elections next month, but would reserve the right to cancel them if an orderly exit could be agreed in the meantime. Any extension beyond the revised Brexit deadline of April 12th needs the unanimous agreement of the EU’s 27 other member states.

EU Council President Donald Tusk was reported by the BBC overnight to be open to a 12-month extension. The pound rose on the news, but fell back after reports citing a skeptical response from French officials.

               

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